It’s Déjà vu All Over Again

For my 10-years as an American living abroad, I’ve had to explain my country’s inability to “get elections right”. In 2000 no one could understand why nine people in black robes ended Florida’s ballot count handing victory to George W. Bush. It was even stranger in ’04 trying to explain why, despite such near unanimous global loathing, he was re-elected by the narrowest of margins because of irregularities in Florida and Ohio. Last night Ohio was again the spoiler as American politics spun further down the rabbit hole prolonging the fight and virtually assuring that a 71-year old Bush apologist will likely win in November as the Democratic Party shows an remarkable ability to eat its young.

The 5 keys to last night…

The Karl Rove (former Bush Advisor) School of Attack Adverts.
A fear-mongering telly advert appeared this weekend in Ohio showing a beautiful sleeping baby and an ominous ringing phone whilst the announcer gravely intoned “it’s 3 am at the White House… there’s a global crisis, who do you want answering that phone?” (They were oblivious to the phone ringing unanswered for 7 rings, but I digress).

Can anyone imagine Alistair Darling running this type of an advert against Gordon Brown to wrest control over the leadership of their own party? That is what is happening in the Democratic primary. Going negative was usually reserved for attacks against your opponent in the general election (sadly, I can see either Gordon or David using this tactic in ’10 or ’11, as you seem to be learning well from the US).

How on earth will this party unite behind their standard bearer for the fall and no, there will not be another “Al Gore moment” where he rides in on his hybrid stallion to save the day and lead the party.

Alienating the Already Alienated
Millions of voters who feel disenfranchised by the grumpy old white men each party continues to propose as standard bearer will remain disenfranchised. Voters came out this year in numbers of 40-50% over anything previously seen in every state. The multi-coloured pastiche of faces standing behind candidate Obama will disappear in November if the choice is more of the same (only this time we’ll have a grumpy white woman?). These young people comprise some 15% of all new voters. They are jaded to begin with, feel the “adults” have fouled both the environment and political system and these results would only confirm their doubts. Go negative, whether it is factual or not, scare people and win?

Fuzzy Math Skills
800+ super delegates, not the voters determining who wins this election would be a travesty. Handing the nomination to either candidate via a smoke-filled room will guarantee a Republican fall victory. Hillary must win more than 60% of the remaining delegates from here until June to just pull even. Regardless of the harm she does to the party, she will stay the course even as Obama wins the remaining contests in March and put her eggs in another must-win Rust Belt state – Pennsylvania – in April.

Florida, Michigan and the Courts
These two states broke their party’s rules by moving their primaries to before Super Tuesday and (aside from kicking themselves as they could be king or queen-makers) the party bosses punished them by refusing to seat their delegates at the convention. (Imagine Birmingham and Yorkshire not being seated at a Tory party conference?)

They held primaries but no one campaigned and indeed Obama was not even on Michigan’s ballot. Now the courts may decide to either: seat these two states delgates, order a new election or anything in between. Too, the Obama camp went to court last night and obtained a court order allowing those standing in long voting queues in urban Cleveland to vote. So there will probably be a lawsuit there because a heavy turnout could cost Mrs. Clinton 1-2 delegates in Ohio.

Eating their Young
The Democrats have a remarkable ability to eat their young and last night was no exception. In his speech last night, Obama issued words of warning where he said the whole world is watching this election and how we treat each other. Spurious e-mail campaigns calling him Muslim, questioning his patriotism, a photo of him in Africa in tribal garb, attack ads, and other general silliness are usually the purview of the opposition party. The world cannot afford four more years of staying the course in Iraq because of yet another tainted American election decided by courts rather than voters.

The show goes on. Party unity in November is fleeting and Barack Obama, who has run an admirable campaign for his message of hope, must “go negative” to win. President Reagan ran a campaign called “Morning in America” and it showed him as sunny and optimistic.

This morning in America it’s cloudy, muddled and stormy.